Bas van Geel, een van de weinige openlijke klimaatsceptici in Nederland, spreekt aanstaande donderdagavond op een klimaatbijeenkomst in Maison Descartes in Amsterdam. De tweede spreker is de Franse arts Sandrine Segovia-Kueny, algemeen afgevaardigde van de Franse natuur en gezondheidsorganisatie (ASEF) voor de regio Ile-de-France. Ikzelf ben aanwezig als moderator van de discussie na afloop van de twee praatjes.

Bas van Geel stuurde al een synopsis van zijn praatje:

Title:       Climate change: are we guilty?
I will shortly explain the various ways of climate reconstruction during the last few milion years (glacial periods – interglacials) and I will mention various causes of climate change. I will show – among others – how fast natural climate shifts can occur.
I will explain how we get information about changing solar activity in the past.
I will show evidence for solar forcing of climate change in the past.
I will pay some attention to climate alarmism (IPCC) and the temperature trends during the last few decades.
I will pay attention to the fact that climate science is not settled and that there is no consensus about anthropogenic climate change.
I will mention that – based on the behaviour of the sun during the last few years – we can probably expect climate cooling in the near future.
I will stress that energy policy is necessary, but that fear mongering (concerning anthropogenic climate change) will work contra-productive.

Klimaat en gezondheid
Het is nog niet duidelijk waar Segovia-Kueny precies over zal spreken, maar dit interview op het web geeft wel een duidelijke indicatie:

Global warming poses grave risks to human health
Climate change poses risks to human health with a rise in allergies, infectious diseases, malnourishment and other health problems, says Dr Sandrine Segovia-Kueny of the French Health And Environment Association.
By FRANCE 24 (text)

Three questions to Dr Sandrine Segovia-Kueny, member of the French Health And Environment Association (ASEF), an association of French doctors.

What is the impact of climate change on people’s health?

The World Health Organisation published findings as early as 2000 showing that global warming caused 150,000 deaths each year – deaths that would not have occurred in a normal context. We expect that number to rise to 500,000 deaths per year by 2030. Yet the impact of climate change on our health is a little-known issue. People think it’s a marginal problem. We can see this even in the current summit at Copenhagen.

Which countries are most affected by climate-caused health problems?

As usual, developing countries are the most vulnerable. Climate change favours the spread of diseases transmitted by mosquito or tick bites, like dengue fever, malaria, or yellow fever, which are most rampant in sub-Saharan countries in Africa. The disease-carrying insects reproduce more and live longer in warmer temperatures. Global warming also causes natural disasters like floods, cyclones or massive draughts. There again, developing countries are the hardest hit.

Are rich countries also affected?

In developed countries, floods caused by climate change are already responsible for many human casualties. There are also heat waves: we expect there to be one major heatwave every two years in France at the end of the 21st century.
Children and people suffering from asthma are also particularly at risk, because they are particularly sensitive to air pollution. Global warming makes air pollution spikes more frequent and aggressive.
Mosquito-transmitted diseases also exist in Europe, although to a lesser degree. Lyme disease, an infection transmitted by ticks, is emerging everywhere in Europe. Certain people say that malaria could resurge in Europe – I think it’s very possible. France has a good healthcare system and is well equipped to fight the disease, but other Mediterranean countries may not be as well prepared.
Finally, climate change favours the development of all sorts of allergies: it is estimated that one out of two people will suffer from allergies by 2050. Spring pollen season, well known to all those who suffer from hay fever, lasts longer in warmer climates. And the pollen produced by plants growing in polluted atmospheres is more allergenic.

Ik heb de afgelopen jaren veel van dit soort bijeenkomsten bijgewoond en ben vooral benieuwd wat de sprekers en de aanwezigen in de zaal vinden van de recente gebeurtenissen, climategate en de kritiek op het IPCC. Is men gaan twijfelen of houdt men vast aan de bevindingen van het IPCC?

Er zijn nog kaartjes, dus hoop enkele lezers van deze blog na afloop te mogen begroeten bij de borrel.

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