Reeds vele keren heb ik aandacht gevraagd voor de mogelijkheid van afkoeling in plaats van de door monomane klimaatalarmisten verwachte verdere opwarming van de atmosfeer. Recentelijk nog hier.

Zoals gebruikelijk, kreeg ik weer velen over mij heen. Immers, voor klimaatbevlogen protagonisten van de AGW-hypothese (AGW = ‘Anthropogenic Global Warming’) is dit pure ketterij. Volgens hen kan en mag dit niet waar zijn. Toch dienen we mijns inziens een open oog te houden voor de mogelijkheid van een afkoeling.

Indien dit soort ideeën zouden worden verkondigd door malloten, kan men ze negeren. Maar dat is niet het geval. Het betreft hier serieuze wetenschappers die hun standpunten goed onderbouwen.

‘The science is settled? All scientists agree?’ Vergeet het maar!

Onder de titel, ‘Mini ice-age which could freeze the Tyne is on the way, says Newcastle academic’, schreef Peter McCusker voor ‘Chronical Live’:

Solar expert Valentina Zharkova warns that the earth is about to be affected by a solar event that will see temperatures plunge.

This damp and cold summer may be a sign of things to come with the earth poised to enter a 30-year mini ice-age which may freeze the Tyne, says a world-leading Newcastle academic. …

Ms Zharkova, a professor in the department of mathematics, physics and electrical engineering, says this regular heartbeat of the sun is subject to predictable fluctuations of its magnetic field, and over the next few years as it enters a lull temperatures, here on earth, will plummet.

This time last year Prof Zharkova announced she had discovered a key solar event which determines magnetic field variations over time. And she ‘confidently’ predicts we will be heading to another ‘Solar Grand Minima’ in solar cycle 25, beginning in 2020 and lasting until 2053.

During the last such event on the sun between 1645 and 1715 – and known as the Maunder Minimum – people skated on a frozen Thames as the average temperature in England fell by almost 2°C.

Prof Zharkova believes the cool summer we are currently experiencing is a precursor of things to come.

Zharkova stelt dat een twee magnetische golven in de zon en hun interactie verantwoordelijk zijn voor fluctuaties van de zonneactiviteit en dat deze voorspelbaar zijn.

The intensity and number of sun spots depends on the amplitude of the magnetic waves when they cross.

We are now entering a period where the sun’s pair of magnetic waves will cross at low amplitudes, beginning with solar cycle 25 in 2020.

And in solar cycle 26, beginning in 2031, we may enter a period of little, or no sunspot activity – and much cooler temperatures – as the pair of magnetic waves fail to cross at any point as they will remain fully separated in the opposite hemispheres of the sun.

Prof Zharkova and her colleagues have been able to simulate this on computer models allowing them to predict future cycles for the next millennium. …

Prof Zharkova said: “We have now established a mathematical law which others can use to apply to this area of research, and so far we have been able to match our research with proven meteorological records dating back 3000 years to 1000 BC.

“This has given us the confidence to predict what will happen to solar activity in the future decades. This decrease poses a question about expected reduction of the temperature of the planet in the coming years because the sun, as we are confidently predicting, will enter into a grand minimum beginning in 2020 – the first such one since the Maunder Minimum.

“We confidently predict this minimum will last for three cycles (33 years), not as long as the last one, but during this time global temperature may fall by an average of 1.5°C although there will be fluctuations across the globe.” …

Prof Zharkova’s predictions also fly in the face of much of what is being said and written about global temperatures.

This worldwide movement was crystallised in last year’s Paris Agreement which saw almost all of the nations of the world unite to vow to try and keep temperature rises to less than 2°C by the end of the century.

Prof Zharkova said: “When it comes to controlling the earth’s temperature the sun trumps the work of mankind infinitesimally.

When Prof Zharkova unveiled her findings at a National Astronomy Meeting in Wales, last year, it received widespread publicity in the international media.

She told The Journal: “We have been pleased by the reaction and we have helped other people from across the global academic community with their own research into this.”

She added: “We now only have to wait five years to show that our predictions are true.”

Lees verder hier.

Als Zharkova gelijk heeft zullen we in die tussentijd nog biljoenen aan zinloos klimaatbeleid spenderen.

Maar elk nadeel heb zijn voordeel. Op dit blog kunnen we nog vijf jaar vooruit!

Voor mijn eerdere bijdragen over klimaat en aanverwante zaken zie hierhier, hier, hier en hier.