De aankondiging van de toekomstige president van de VS, Donald Trump, dat hij de Amerikaanse deelname aan de klimaatovereenkomst van Parijs ongedaan wil maken, heeft inmiddels zo veel aandacht gekregen dat we bijna zouden vergeten dat er nog andere invalshoeken zijn van al dat klimaatgedoe. Naast de virtuele wereld, waarin klimaatverandering en decarbonisering van de wereldeconomie hoog op de agenda staan, zoals thans bij de jaarlijkse hoogmis van het klimaatalarmisme in Marrakech, is er nog een reële wereld waar producenten van de vermaledijde grondstof hun visie op de toekomst van hun exportproduct geven. Het blijkt dat zij daar héél anders over denken.

Onder de titel, ‘Defiant Opec bets on fossil hegemony deep into the 21st century’, schreef Ambrose Evans-Pritchard voor ‘The Daily Mail’:

The Opec cartel is taking a brave bet that global oil demand will keep rising fast for another 25 years, convinced that fossil fuels will retain their overwhelming dominance over world energy deep into the 21st century.

The Gulf-led group has based its strategic planning on assumptions that the Paris climate accords that came into force last week will largely fail. …

The group’s 2016 World Oil Outlook released today estimates that crude demand will rise by a further 16.4m barrels per day (b/d) to over 109m b/d by 2040, driven by economic booms in China, India, and the emerging economies.

Opec will enjoy the lion’s share of the expanding market, boosting its output of oil and liquids by 12.6m b/d. Production from the rest of the world will peak within a decade and then go into gentle decline.

The long-range forecast shows the Middle East strengthening its position at the epicentre of the oil industry, as output from US shale and Russian fields reach a plateau, and high-cost drilling in the Arctic and ultra-deep waters disappoints. Oil prices will double to $92 in today’s money by 2040.

The outlook is a far cry from the bombshell warnings by Shell last week that global crude demand could peak within five years, chiefly due to vaulting gains in fuel efficiency and the switch to zero-emission vehicles. …

Opec says it welcomes the climate deal and will play a part in delivering its goals, but the report’s base case explicitly assumes that countries will not meet their pledges – or even come close – and that business will continue more or less as usual for the oil sector.

It estimates that fossil fuels will make up 77pc of total energy demand in 2040, with solar, wind, and geothermal accounting for a still risible 4.7pc.

Lees verder hier.


En dan is er natuurlijk Donald Trump die heeft verklaard de klimaatovereenkomst van de klimaattop van Parijs te zullen verwerpen.

Onder de titel, ‘Trump can kill UN climate deal, warns EU carbon market chief’, schreef James Crisp voor EurActiv:

The election of Donald Trump as President of the United States is a “real and imminent threat” to the fight against climate change, and “completely upends every single element” of the Paris Agreement, making it almost impossible to deliver, the MEP leading EU carbon market reform has warned.

Trump, elected today (9 November), has called climate change a hoax, saying it was “fictional”, and “created by the Chinese”.

The president-elect has threatened to pull the US out of the UN deal to cap global warming at no more than two degrees above pre-industrial levels with an aspirational 1.5 degree target. Today, EU Climate Commissioner Miguel Arias Cañete wrote to Trump, stressing the need for continued EU-US cooperation.

Ian Duncan is the Conservative member of the European Parliament leading the reform of the EU’s Emissions Trading System (ETS), the world’s largest scheme for trading emissions allowances.

Reforming the ETS is a major part of the EU strategy to cut emissions in line with the bloc’s climate commitments.

World governments are this week meeting in Marrakech, Morocco for the COP22 climate conference, which aims to thrash out the practical implication of the landmark pact to cap global warming.

“It completely upends every single element of the Paris Accord and almost certainly makes it impossible to deliver,” Duncan said.

Who will listen to US Secretary of State John Kerry in Marrakech now?, he asked. US officials in Morocco are “speaking for nobody but themselves and for an outgoing administration.” …

“You can’t have the EU alone addressing climate change and nobody else doing it. Your industries will suffer immediately.” …

Duncan spent this morning at a meeting of MEPs from the other major European political parties. They discussed compromised amendments on the ETS bill but there was “no doubt that everyone recognised what Trump’s victory means.”

“A dark mood is the best description,” Duncan said of the meeting. “If we look behind our shoulders and no longer see allies to our left and right, then how far ahead of the pack can we go?”

Duncan, who has argued for climate change to be excluded from any Brexit negotiations, predicted that EU unity on climate action could splinter.

Paris is based on the global pain and cost of climate action being shared, he said. Greater costs being borne by the EU as a result of US recalcitrance could sap political will. …

Trump’s victory was welcomed by some MEPs. Roger Helmer, of UKIP, does not believe in climate change. He tweeted, “Paris is dead, as is COP22.”

Lees verder hier.

Het is hoog tijd dat de EU beseft dat zij niet in staat is een voortrekkersrol in het mondiale klimaatbeleid te spelen. Bovendien stoelt haar miljardenverslindende beleid op een wankele wetenschappelijke basis en levert het geen enkel aantoonbaar voordeel op in termen van een vermindering van de opwarming van de atmosfeer.

Voor mijn eerdere bijdragen over klimaat en aanverwante zaken zie hierhier, hier, hier en hier.