Onder de titel, ‘New Papers: Intermittent Wind Power Preserves & Increases Need For Fossil Fuel Energy Generation‘, vestigde Kenneth Richard op de website ‘NoTricksZone’ de aandacht op enkele artikelen verschenen in de peer–reviewed literatuur, waarin werd geconcludeerd dat – in tegenstelling tot dat wat men zou denken – meer windenergie niet leidt tot minder, maar tot méér fossiele energie.

Ik pik er een aantal elementen uit.

Wind turbines cannot produce energy when the wind is not blowing. Consequently, wind power routinely needs to be backed up by reliable and immediately–available energy sources — which are often fossil fuels–based (gas, oil, coal).

So as wind power installation expands across the world, more fossil fuel plants will need to be built to back them up.

A new observational analysis using data from 10 European Union countries affirms the rather devastating conclusion that wind power installation “preserves fossil fuel dependency” because for every 1% increase in the installed capacity of wind power there is a concomitant ~0.25% increase in the need for more electricity generation from fossil fuels.

And, sure enough, the growth in natural gas production and consumption across the globe is expected to explode in the coming decades (EIA, 2016), nearly doubling in production (from 300 to nearly 600 billion cubic feet per day) between 2010 and 2040.

Currently, 1,600 new coal plants in 62 countries are planned or in the process of being constructed across the world, expanding the world’s coal-fired energy capacity by 43% in the coming years (New York Times, 2017).

There can be no long–term CO2 emissions reduction benefit to installing more and more wind power if the long–term net effect of doing so leads to the requisite construction of more fossil fuel energy plants.

Richard verwijst daarbij naar een artikel van Marques et al., getiteld: ‘Have fossil fuels been substituted by renewables? An empirical assessment for 10 European countries‘.

Enkele conclusies:

♦ “The installed capacity of wind power preserves fossil fuel dependency. … Electricity consumption intensity and its peaks have been satisfied by burning fossil fuels. … [A]s RES [renewable energy sources] increases, the expected decreasing tendency in the installed capacity of electricity generation from fossil fuels, has not been found. Despite the high share of RES in the electricity mix, RES, namely wind power and solar PV, are characterised by intermittent electricity generation. … The inability of RES-I [intermittent renewable energy sources like wind and solar] to satisfy high fluctuations in electricity consumption on its own constitutes one of the main obstacles to the deployment of renewables. This incapacity is due to both the intermittency of natural resource availability, and the difficulty or even impossibility of storing electricity on a large scale, to defer generation. As a consequence, RES [renewable energy sources] might not fully replace fossil sources.”

♦ “The literature proves the existence of a unidirectional causality running from RES [renewable energy sources] to NRES [non-renewable energy sources] (Almulali et al., 2014; Dogan, 2015; Salim et al., 2014). This unidirectional causality proves the need for countries to maintain or increase their installed capacity of fossil fuel generation, because of the characteristics of RES [renewable energy sources] production.”

….

♦ “[A]n increase of 1% in the installed capacity of wind power provokes an increase of 0.26%, and 0.22% in electricity generation from oil and natural gas, respectively in the long-run…. Natural gas plants are the most commonly used to manage the scarcity of RES electricity supply and the uncertainty of electricity demand. Indeed, the flexibility and storage facilities of natural gas plants allow the electricity production systems to effectively match the electricity demand with the electricity supply. Hence, this implies that the greater the electricity consumption peaks, the larger the capacity for generation from natural gas plants must be and, consequently, the longer and larger the capacity needed on stand-by status.”

Voorts verwijst Richard naar Blazques et al., ‘To Grow Renewables’ Market Share. More Fossil Fual Plants Are Needed’. Hij schrijft daarover:

In another new paper that lends support to the conclusions of Marques et al. (2018) above, Blazquez et al. (2018) (full paper available for download) find that renewable energy paradoxically becomes more and more costly to consumers the further it penetrates the market, and thus simultaneous growth in fossil fuel technologies is needed to keep the costs of renewable energy sustainable.

Moreover, Blazquez et al. (2018) conclude that “transition towards a full 100% renewable electricity sector is unattainable.”

Lees verder hier.

Op basis van hun modelberekeningen suggereert het PBL dat er besparing van de CO2–uitstoot zal plaatsvinden, naarmate het aandeel windenergie in de energy mix toeneemt.

Uit voorgaande literatuur, gebaseerd op de praktijk, blijkt dat de fossiel gestookte elektriciteitsproductie niet zal afnemen, maar zal toenemen! Voor de lezers van Climategate.nl komt dat waarschijnlijk niet als een verrassing. Maar voor alle anderen wellicht als een schok.

Alweer een illusie armer!

De recente waarschuwing van TenneT voor onbalans in het net, past in het hier geschetste beeld.

From/Van : TenneT TSO BV
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Date-time/Datum-Tijd : 30-apr-2018-11:22h
Betreft : Bedrijfstoestand: ALERT

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