Kort geleden schreef ik:

In een voordracht in 2014 verklaarde de Duitse Vice-Bondskanselier, Sigmar Gabriël:

Die Energiewende steht kurz vor dem Aus. Die Wahrheit ist, dass wir die Komplexität der Energiewende auf allen Feldern unterschätzt haben. Die anderen Länder in Europa halten uns sowieso für Bekloppte.

Wie had gedacht dat de opmerking van Gabriël het begin van de terugkeer van gezond verstand inluidde, had het mis.

Nu, twee jaar later, lijkt er toch licht te gloren aan het eind van de tunnel en zal er binnenkort een Plan B in werking treden.

Onder de titel (Engelse vertaling), ‘German Government ‘Plans To Stop And Reverse Wind Power’, schreef Frank-Thomas Wenzel in de ‘Berliner Zeitung’:

If the green energy plans by the German Federal Government are implemented, the expansion of onshore wind energy will soon come to a standstill and then go into reverse. …

What is the future of wind energy in Germany?

This depends entirely on political developments. In early March, German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel presented a draft for the amendment of the Renewable Energies Act (EEG). The new rules regulate the subsidy levels for renewable energy. The new regulations are to be adopted in coming months. The draft says, inter alia, that the amount of renewable energy in the electricity mix will be limited to a level of 40 to 45 percent by 2025. At the end of last year the level was already nearly 33 percent.

De groenen staan natuurlijk op hun achterste benen.

What does this mean for the expansion of wind energy?

A study by consultants ERA on behalf of the Green Party’s parliamentary group concludes that under these provisions the development of wind energy will collapse fairly soon: A target of 45 percent would mean that only 1500 megawatts could be installed annually after 2018, according to the study. That’s less than half as the average of wind energy installed in the past five days.

How does this affect the amount of electricity produced?

The 1500 MW of new-built wind turbines would be insufficient even to replace older ones against new ones, the ERA-authors write. This means that wind generation capacity is actually shrinking. “As a consequence, there will be an economic stagnation of electricity from onshore wind energy already in the 2020s”, the study claims. From 2022 onwards, the amount of wind power will begin to shrink. With a 1,500 megawatts limit the government would undermine its own goals of a so-called expansion corridor of 2400-2600 megawatts.

What would the 40 percent cap mean?

A 40% cap for wind energy completely stop the construction of new wind farms by of 2019, according to the ERA study. Overall, this would reduce onshore wind power by almost 6000 megawatts compared to the end of 2015 – which would mean a massive slump in wind power generation by 18 terawatt hours.

What does this mean for companies that build the plants?

“The domestic market for many manufacturers collapses completely,” says Julia Verlinden, spokesperson for Energy Policy in the Green Party’s parliamentary group. “With their plan, the federal government is killing the wind companies.” This although wind energy is a cost-effective technology which can replace nuclear and coal power plants, she adds.  …

“With the planned EEG amendment Sigmar Gabriel wants to set himself a monument as the wrecker of the green energy transition,” said Green Party Vice Oliver Krischer. While the rest of the world is investing in solar and wind power, Germany’s federal government is going into reverse – just at a time when renewable energy has become so cheap.

Lees verder hier.

De oorspronkelijke link naar het artikel in de ‘Berliner Zeiting’ is hier te vinden.

Oei! Het braafste jongetje van de klas gooit de kont tegen de krib. Maar beter ten halve gekeerd dan ten hele gedwaald. En wat zal dit betekenen voor de Duitse doelstelling voor de vermindering van de CO2–uitstoot met 40 % in 1920, 55% in 2030, 70% in 2040 en 80% – 95% in 2050 (alles in vergelijking met het basisjaar 1990)? En hoe zullen andere landen, zoals Nederland, daarop reageren? Zullen die doorgaan met hun heilloze beleid waar Duitsland op zijn schreden terugkeert? En wat zal dit betekenen voor het CO2-beleid van de EU?

De toekomst zal het leren.

Voor mijn eerdere bijdragen over klimaat en aanverwante zaken zie hierhier, hier, hier en hier.

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